A potential US Supreme Court decision expected by mid-2026 may determine whether President Donald Trump exceeded his executive authority when imposing broad national-security-based tariffs earlier in 2025. According to market insiders speaking to SteelOrbis, a ruling against Trump could trigger a sharp resurgence in US steel imports, especially as current tariffs continue to hold import volumes at historically low levels.
During oral arguments on November 5, several justices questioned whether the president can bypass Congress under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Media analysis suggests that betting markets now assign a low probability of a Trump victory, raising concerns inside the industry.
Should the Court rule against the administration, insiders warn that more than $3 trillion in collected tariff revenue may need to be refunded, an outcome that could send import volumes soaring as pricing differentials widen between the US and overseas markets.
The case does not affect the separate Section 232 steel tariffs, currently maintained at 50 percent—the highest level to date. These duties have sharply reduced imports of critical steel products from Canada, South Korea, and Mexico, and have contributed to US mills imposing supply allocations on customers amid tight domestic supply.
Recent data shows significant year-on-year declines in US hot rolled coil (HRC) imports:
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Canada: down 55.2%
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South Korea: down 51.2%
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Mexico: down nearly 50%
With domestic and import prices now aligned, industry participants expect import volumes to rise sharply in spring 2026, potentially reviving intense competitive pricing behavior as US mills seek to protect market share.
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