The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that global steel demand will remain stable at 1.75 billion mt in 2025 before growing 1.3% to 1.78 billion mt in 2026, driven by strong regional dynamics and infrastructure investment.
“Despite escalating trade tensions, we are cautiously optimistic that demand will bottom out in 2025 and recover moderately thereafter,” said Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee.
Regional outlook:
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China: Demand expected to decline 2% in 2025, mainly due to continued weakness in the housing market.
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Developing economies: India leads growth, with steel demand rising 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. Africa continues a 5.5% annual growth trend, while ASEAN and MENA show robust activity.
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Americas: Demand projected to increase 5.5% in 2025, led by Argentina’s rebound and stable Brazilian growth.
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Developed economies: Demand set to contract 0.5% in 2025 but recover 1.5% in 2026, driven by EU and US infrastructure and easing financial conditions.
China’s slowdown is expected to be offset by emerging market momentum and public investment, positioning the industry for a moderate global recovery in 2026 and beyond.
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