Green steel development and shifting trade flows were central discussions at the Middle East Iron & Steel Conference (MEIS) in Dubai last week, where analysts emphasized that EU safeguard measures are expected to impact Asian steel exports more heavily than the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Although Asian producers mainly operate BF/BOF routes—making them appear vulnerable to CBAM—market participants argued that quota restrictions will reduce Asian shipments to Europe long before CBAM costs do.
Priyanka Agrawal, head of steel markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Asian steel prices are already at least $20/mt below European levels, and that quotas—not CBAM—will drive export declines, particularly for India.
The EU’s updated safeguard framework will cap tariff-free imports at 18.3 million mt per year, amounting to a 47% reduction versus 2024 quotas, and will raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50% starting mid-2026.
Industry sources added that Indonesia may be newly included, which would sharply reduce its currently large flow of low-priced HRC into Europe.
The EU is also preparing to introduce a “melt and pour” traceability rule, but major Asian mills are not yet equipped to comply.
On decarbonization, panelists highlighted China’s targets to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Chinese mills—including Jianlong Group, the world’s seventh-largest steelmaker in 2024—continue upgrading for ultra-low emissions while expanding green-steel value chains overseas.
A major focus at MEIS was the acceleration of DRI/HBI projects across Asia, driven by global protectionism and local decarbonization needs. Hyundai has already invested in a 2.7-million-mt U.S. greenfield DRI-EAF steel project, while Nippon Steel produced Japan’s first domestically made DRI in November.
Chinese producers are also scaling hydrogen-based technologies. Ansteel produced its first hydrogen-based DRI in September, while HBIS targets emission levels of 250 kg CO₂/tonne, positioning itself for easier entry into Europe. Baosteel’s Zhanjiang unit, via Sinosteel E&T, is developing a 1-million-mt/year hydrogen DRI plant, marking another milestone in China’s green-steel trajectory.
VietnamSteel by Hoa Sen Group
