The NBU expects iron ore prices to decline from 2027, while billet prices continue to increase

The National Bank of Ukraine expects Ukrainian billet prices to rise 6.3% year-on-year to $494/t in 2026 (FOB Ukraine), while iron ore prices are forecast to increase 2.4% to $102.6/t (China import Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe).

From 2027, the two markets are expected to move in opposite directions. Iron ore prices are forecast to fall 5.1% year-on-year to $97.4/t in 2027 and another 2.9% to $94.6/t in 2028. The decline is linked to higher global supply from Brazil, Australia and India, alongside new production capacity in Guinea, including China’s Simandou project.

“Global iron ore production, particularly of high-quality ore, is expected to increase due to rising output in leading producing countries: Brazil and Australia, as well as India. An additional factor driving the expansion of global supply will be China’s development of new production capacity, particularly in Guinea (the Simandou deposit),” the NBU says in its July 2026 inflation report.

Billet prices, meanwhile, are projected to rise to $510.4/t (+3.3% y-o-y) in 2027 and $518/t (+1.5% y-o-y) in 2028 (FOB Ukraine).

The NBU attributes the increase to decarbonisation, CBAM requirements, high natural gas and electricity prices, which account for 25%–40% of European steel production costs, and a reduction in global steel supply.

In July, square billet prices in most regional markets fell by around $10/t, according to GMK Center. Turkey was an exception, with prices rising $8/t to $543/t (Turkey Ex-Works).

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