EU and UK steel prices are expected to increase sharply in 2026 as the European Commission’s revised import safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) come into effect, according to UK-based steel supplier All Steels.
The new trade framework will cap tariff-free imports at 18.3 million metric tons per year, roughly half the current quota, while out-of-quota imports will face a 50 percent duty. In addition, CBAM, set to begin on January 1, 2026, will add £30–130 per metric ton to import costs depending on carbon intensity.
These measures follow US protectionist policies that have significantly impacted European competitiveness. In 2024, EU steel exports to the US totaled 3.8 million mt and are now subject to a 50 percent import tax, while UK exports of 180,000 mt face a 25 percent tariff.
All Steels forecasts that EU and UK prices could rise by £80/mt in the short term, with increases exceeding £200/mt later in 2026 once full protection measures are in place. The company also anticipates re-shoring trends as buyers reduce exposure to Asian markets and CBAM-related costs, tightening supply and supporting domestic producers.
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