In 2025, there should be a turning point in the market and revival of consumption
The global steel market is experiencing its longest downturn in 20 years, said Yuriy Ryzhenkov, CEO of Metinvest Group, at the Siderweb 2024 forum held on 26 September in Vicenza, Italy.
The cyclical steel market peaked in late 2021 and early 2022. The market then declined due to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the worsening energy crisis, supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty around the world.
“The years 2022 and 2023 were a period when the world was trying to cope with the consequences of the war that broke out in the center of Europe. And now the war in the Middle East has been added to it. I think we are now experiencing the longest downturn in the steel cycle in the last 20 years. It has already lasted for more than three years. So, in 2025, there should be a turnaround in the market and a revival in consumption,” he said.
The previous steel market downturn in early 2000 lasted less than a year and a half, and in 2008-2009 it lasted a few months. Over the past year, the European steel market has been the most volatile, with imports now accounting for more than 27% of apparent steel consumption in Europe. The situation is complicated by high energy prices and conflicts, added the Metinvest CEO.
Metinvest has already adapted to the new reality. The company improved its financial results in 2024 against a low base in 2023, built new logistics and created new partnerships.
According to Yuriy Ryzhenkov, the negative phase of the market will be reversed by the US government’s actions to cut the discount rate and the stimulus package recently introduced by the Chinese government.
As reported earlier, in the first half of 2024, Metinvest increased steel production by 1% year-on-year – to 1.04 million tons. Production of iron ore concentrate increased by 87% y/y – to 8.89 million tons, while coal concentrate decreased by 31% y/y – to 2.08 million tons. Pig iron production dropped by 4% y/y – to 884 thousand tons, and coke production by 13% y/y – to 564 thousand tons.
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