Annual export volumes are expected to exceed the 2015 record of 110 million tons
China’s steel exports in January-November 2024 reached 101.15 million tons, up 22.6% compared to the same period in 2023 and 12% higher than the total 90.26 million tons last year. This is evidenced by data from the China Steel Association (CISA).
In November of this year, Chinese steelmakers increased steel exports by 15.9% compared to November 2023, and decreased by 17% compared to the previous month – to 9.28 million tons.
“November steel exports remained strong as shipments continued to be rush due to concerns over tariffs imposed by the newly elected US President. We expect total steel exports to surpass the 2015 record this year,” a Horizon Insights analyst commented in a Reuters report.
China’s iron ore imports in the first 11 months of 2024 amounted to 1.124 billion tons, up 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023. In November, these volumes fell by 1.9% m/m and 0.8% y/y to 101.86 million tons. The decline in imports of raw materials occurred amid a seasonal slowdown in steel demand.
“This trend is in line with our expectations as the pressure on miners to increase shipments to meet annual targets has eased after a wave of large shipments at the beginning of the year,” said Pei Hao, an analyst at Freight Investor Services.
According to the consulting company Steelhome, port stocks in November fell by 0.4% to 148.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase slightly in December as some mining companies have incomplete annual plans for raw material sales.
Steel imports to China in November amounted to 473 thousand tons (-11.8% m/m; -22.5% y/y). In January-November, imports decreased by 11.3% y/y – to 6.19 million tons.
As a reminder, in 2023, China increased its exports of steel products by 36.2% compared to 2022, to 90.3 million tons. Steel imports to China amounted to 7.64 million tons, down 27.6% y/y. Iron ore imports for the year increased by 6.6% compared to 2022 to 1.179 billion tons.
In 2023, China produced 1.019 billion tons of steel, up 0.6% from 2022. The downward trend in the country’s steel industry has stopped after two consecutive years of declining production.
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